Uncertainty U.S. imports of containerized goods fell 7.5% year over year in October, as shipments from China fell 16.3% amid importers’ caution over President Donald Trump’s evolving tariff policies, according to Descartes. U.S. seaports handled a total of 2.3 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) last month, down 0.1% from September and below the 2.4 million to 2.6 million TEU range that typically indicates peak business activity, marking only the second October in the past decade to record a monthly decline.
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With holiday merchandise hitting store shelves and inventories remaining healthy, the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates expect U.S. imports to slow in November and December, likely falling below 2 million TEU. The declines expected this year partly reflect a surge in imports in late 2024 fueled by concerns about potential strikes at ports and tariff-related front-loading that pushed forward shipments originally scheduled in subsequent months.
“Our trade forecasts are for a slight decline in imports this year compared to 2024 and another, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates.
Imports from China, one of the US’s largest trading partners, rose 5.4% month-on-month to 803,901 TEU, but saw broad year-over-year declines in their largest categories with imports of furniture and bedding down 13.6%, toys and sporting goods down 30.4%, and electrical machinery down 17.2% compared to 2024.
“October’s results reflect continued caution among importers, with broad year-on-year declines and limited month-on-month growth. With new trade terms between the US and China following recent negotiations, China’s share of US imports may stabilize in the near term,” Descartes said. The 20% fentanyl tariff on Chinese imports will fall to 10% on November 10, while the planned increase in reciprocal tariffs has been postponed by a year. Meanwhile, the current 10% tariff under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act remains in place as the Supreme Court reviews its legality.
U.S. import volumes from the top 10 exporters rose 1.3% month-on-month in October, driven by a recovery in China, but were partially offset by declines across Asia, with imports from India, Thailand, and Vietnam down 19%, 6%, and 4.8%, respectively, according to Descartes.
Source: Market intelligence platform IndexBox
