Global container shipping rates fell for the first time in a month, signaling the start of the traditional post-holiday cooling off period, while ongoing uncertainty in the Red Sea continues to weigh on market expectations.
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The Drewry World Container Index fell 5% this week to $1,859 per 40-foot container, ending a four-week streak of gains. The biggest decline came on trans-Pacific routes: spot rates from Shanghai to New York fell 15% to $3,254, while fares to Los Angeles fell 12% to $2,328. Analysts note that this decline comes on the heels of an unsustainable early-season surge, driven largely by temporary general price increases that faded once retailers completed their holiday imports.
Drury expects prices to “fall slightly or stay flat” next week as carriers struggle to maintain pricing power amid weak demand.
But in the Asia-Europe corridor, interest rates have shown greater flexibility. Spot rates from Shanghai to Genoa rose 4% to $2,193, while rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam rose 3% to $2,028. Carriers are trying to raise prices across these corridors ahead of the annual contracting season, introducing new FAK levels of between $3,000 and $3,650 per FEU as of November 15.
However, market fundamentals remain fragile. Drewry’s latest container forecaster warns that the balance of supply and demand is expected to deteriorate further in the coming quarters – especially if normal transit of the Suez Canal resumes following the Houthis’ recent ceasefire announcement.
Peter Sand, senior analyst at Xeneta, warned that a rapid shift back to the Red Sea could send shock waves through the global market. He added: “The details are not clear, and the safety of crews, ships and goods cannot depend on the words of the Houthi militia.” “Carriers need much more assurance than that, and perhaps more importantly, so do insurance companies.”
Zeneta estimates that diversions around the Cape of Good Hope currently accommodate approximately 2 million TEU of global container capacity, and some analyzes indicate an 8% decline in available supply. A sudden return to Red Sea crossings would release this capacity back into the market as demand declines.
“Average spot prices from the Far East to Northern Europe, the Mediterranean and the East Coast of the United States have fallen by more than 50% since the beginning of the year,” Sand noted. “A large-scale return of ships to the Red Sea would inject significant excess capacity and push prices down – not just on the affected trade but globally.”
Maritime security specialists remain cautious despite the ceasefire signals. While the risk of attacks across the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and surrounding waters has decreased, Houthi forces retain the ability to strike commercial ships. The conditional nature of the ceasefire means that hostilities could quickly resume if regional tensions escalate.
As 2026 approaches, transportation companies face a challenging landscape. Sand warned that many of them are already approaching the loss zone, and that global shipping rates could fall by up to 25% next year even if Red Sea conditions remain unchanged. He said shipping companies must prepare for all scenarios: “A widespread return to the Suez routes would disrupt global supply chains as services reconfigure, causing significant volatility.”
Meanwhile, high marine insurance premiums and persistent concerns about the safety of crew and cargo remain major obstacles to any large-scale resumption of Red Sea crossings.
