As global airlines evaluate the possibility of resuming Red Sea crossings, Subal Shah, CEO of Sarjak Container Lines, says the real question is not whether the industry will return, but how quickly. The speed of this return will determine whether the market experiences price collapses or more orderly stability.
Read also: Suez Canal eyes return of huge containers amid security improvements in the Red Sea
Sarjak Container Lines operates services in and out of the region, providing first-hand insight into conditions on the ground and evolving sentiment among vessel operators.
A temporary pause does not guarantee permanent stability
While reports of a decline in attacks are encouraging, Shah points out that the situation remains very fragile and contingent. Previous pauses were short-lived and current insurance ratings reflect ongoing risks.
“In our operational experience, a temporary decrease in incidents does not yet mean safe and reliable passage. The area has not demonstrated the sustained stability that crews, insurers and operators need,” Shah said.
War risk insurance premiums remain very high. Until risk ratings change, an immediate industry-wide return is unlikely.
If shipping lines come back quickly: A market shock is likely
A rapid return to the Suez route would suddenly reduce journey distances, returning significant amounts of capacity to the global system. According to Shah, such a sudden shift could lead to the following:
- A significant increase in surplus tonnage across the main East-West trade
- Rapid downward pressure on freight and charter rates
- Increased risk of empty sailing, idling and slow steaming
- Potential schedule disruptions as networks adjust too quickly
“The industry is entering a period where supply is actually exceeding demand,” Shah said. “A quick return could accelerate the erosion of interest rates and destabilize markets as they seek equilibrium.”
If the return occurs gradually: a more stable path
In contrast, a phased return, guided by consistent security improvements, reduced war risk premiums and operational planning, would allow the system to rebalance in a controlled manner.
Such a scenario would enable operators to:
- Restoring the Suez Canal routes in stages, while avoiding sudden shocks in capacity
- Seamlessly recalibrate feeder networks and port cycles
- Protecting rental markets from sudden price fluctuations
- Maintain more predictable equipment flows for shippers
“A well-measured and sequenced return supports stability across the supply chain,” Shah said. “It gives carriers, ports and customers time to adapt rather than react.”
Operational structures cannot change overnight
Shah stressed that global networks have been reconfigured for nearly a year. Alliance rings, refueling strategies, and shipping patterns around the Cape of Good Hope have been redesigned.
He said: “Even if conditions improve tomorrow, the industry will still need weeks or months to dismantle the emergency networks that are in place now.” “Operators need constant certainty before making another major structural shift.”
Shah likened the situation to a very important bridge that had been unsafe for a long time:
“If engineers declare a damaged bridge ‘temporarily safe,’ most drivers do not rush back immediately. Rather, they wait for tightened inspections, lifting weight limits, and proofing of the structure. Otherwise, the risk of another closure outweighs the benefit of convenience. The Red Sea Corridor is no different. Returning too quickly can create new vulnerabilities if stability is not ensured.”
Conclusion: Not “if” but “how fast”
Shah concluded that the Red Sea’s importance to global trade warranted its eventual full reopening. The question now is how quickly this pace and the consequences will take place.
“The Red Sea will reopen to traffic on a large scale, there is no doubt about it. But the speed of the return will determine whether the industry faces renewed volatility or a more balanced adjustment. A rapid return risks intensifying the emerging cycle of oversupply. A phased return provides a healthier and more commercially sustainable path.”
“Based on what we see through our operations in the region, decisions continue to be guided by caution. Lasting and proven stability will ultimately determine how quickly the industry returns.”
About Sarjak Container Lines
Sarjak Container Lines Company. is a global enterprise logistics company founded in 2003, offering ODC, OOG, breakbulk, heavy transport and freight forwarding solutions through a dedicated equipment fleet and its own multi-purpose vessel, SCL Mercury.
With a strong international network covering more than 84 countries and more than 275 coastal cities, the company ensures the safe, efficient and comprehensive handling of complex cargo all over the world. Known for its technical expertise, customer focus and future-focused mindset, Sarjak Container Lines continues to provide reliable, scalable and high-performance logistics solutions to sectors such as renewable energy, oil and gas, engineering, infrastructure, power, manufacturing and other diverse industries across global markets.
