This is especially important during peak shipping season, when many companies must increase throughput to accommodate the increase in orders flowing through their facilities. Mobile robots can help automate picking, fulfillment and replenishment tasks, speeding up warehouse operations and reducing the demand for often temporary workers. Earlier this fall, some robotics companies were touting big gains in mobile robot deployments in response to the double whammy of economic uncertainty and the peak, with plans for similar growth heading into 2026.
Scalability rules the day
Demand for some types of automation is starting to rise after a two-year drought that saw sales and deployment of automated warehouse equipment slow — conditions exacerbated by the rise and fall of tariffs in 2025.
“There is a lot of uncertainty right now, [and] This causes an element of hesitation among automation investors, Scriven explains.
In an April report, Interact Analysis warned that the Trump administration’s tariffs could impact investment decisions in warehouse automation, supply chain strategies, and logistics infrastructure in 2025 — with steel tariffs, in particular, raising the cost of automated systems and thus reducing companies’ return on investment (ROI) across the board. In June, Interact Analysis lowered its warehouse automation forecast to 2030 based on those conditions. A month later, the research firm reported that global sales of industrial robots fell by about 6% in 2024, and are expected to rise only gradually this year.
Mobile robots — especially the collaborative kind, designed to work alongside humans — may be the only bright spot on the horizon, driven by the demand for flexibility and scalability that Scriven and others say has emerged this year. Globally, shipments of collaborative robots (cobots) fell about 14% in 2024 but are expected to rise about 21% this year and 24% next year, according to additional Interact analysis data released in July.
Collaborative AMR developer Locus Robotics is seeing this trend firsthand. CEO Rick Volk says the company’s peak-season bot deployments were up 50% year over year by mid-September, with customers saying they needed the bots to handle the 30% to 40% jump in order volumes many were already seeing at the time. Locus offers the artificial intelligence (AI)-driven LocusOne platform and a fleet of AMRs through its bots-as-a-service (RaaS) model, which allows companies to add or remove bots based on fluctuating demand.
“[Customers] They all have the same challenges. “They are under pressure to do more with less,” Volk explains, adding that Locus sees the highest peak-season demand for its robots in the U.S. and Europe compared to other parts of the world. “With the robotics-as-a-service model, it’s no longer about a huge capital investment. It’s really about flexible, scalable tools that can be implemented quickly. So they can scale up and down based on demand.”
Volk says scaling up is easy: Locus robots can be powered up, connected to Wi-Fi, and ready to move around a warehouse in about two minutes. He says implementing a new system is also quick; It usually only takes a few weeks to get the LocusOne platform and robots up and running. In contrast, static automation projects can take months — even years — and don’t have the scalability of mobile robots. Stationary automation systems include solutions bolted to the ground, such as conveyors, sorters, vertical lift units (VLMs) and the like.
Volk underscores the acceleration in demand for flexible automation by noting that the technology was still “nascent” just five years ago. He says it’s now an easy way for companies to answer the call for warehouse automation while dealing with rising costs, volume volatility and other market pressures.
“The trend toward flexibility is here to stay,” Volk says. “The math is simple: rising wages and rising volumes create an increasing need for automation – and that’s the macro trend that’s happening.”
Locus Robotics will ship “thousands” of its collaborative robots in this year’s peak season, to handle the wave of revenue coming in January, Volk says.
Preparing for the “new peak”
Another issue driving the trend toward flexible, scalable robots is what Volk and others call the “flattening” of the peak holiday shipping season and the emergence of a new peak: the onslaught of post-holiday returns in January.
First, fall sales and sales — including Amazon’s big deal days in October — pre-empt Black Friday as the start of the holiday shopping season, effectively flattening the traditional peak, creating a longer, though perhaps less frenetic, cycle of increased demand.
“Three years ago, Black Friday started it all. But what we’re seeing now is early shopping and peak settlement,” Volk explains, noting that the change makes it easier for retailers and third-party logistics providers (3PLs) to manage larger quantities by spreading the work out over a longer period of time. “They stimulate early purchases; [which allows them to] Demand and workforce deployment.
Second, warehouses and fulfillment centers are dealing with accelerated “bracketing,” or what Volk refers to as the “rater” problem: where online shoppers order items in multiple sizes with the aim of returning those that don’t fit quite right.
Free and easy returns are driving this trend.
“What that creates on the back side is a massive reverse logistics peak, which starts in January,” he says. “This year is expected to be the highest ever.”
As customers use Locus’ AMRs for more than just selection, Volk says he expects to see increased demand through January. Beyond picking, Volk says about 40% of customers also use bots for replenishment, and a growing number of them use returns as well.
All in the name of increasing the speed of productivity, whether incoming or outgoing.
“When business volumes double overnight, you can’t just double your workforce,” Volk says. “Automation is the only lever that can scale at peak. That’s why flexible automation is important.”
Next: hominins
The next wave of flexible warehouse robots may be here sooner than you think, and their “form factor” will be eerily familiar to their new co-workers. Many robotics companies are hard at work developing and testing humanoid robots, hoping to have them operating on a large scale in warehouses around the world within the next few years. Humanoid robots resemble the human body – in general, they have a torso, head, arms and legs, but they can also imitate only parts of the body (for example, some models have a torso and limbs but no heads).
Two developments last summer are helping to move the industry in this direction. In August, Chinese robotics company RealMan Robotics launched a 30,000-square-foot humanoid robot data training center in Beijing, deploying more than 100 robots across real-world environments to accelerate “the development of embodied AI and humanoid robots.” Company leaders say the training center will “expand industry-academic collaboration, mobilize ecosystem resources, and foster a culture of technological co-creation, data sharing, and business co-growth” — efforts they hope will accelerate the global adoption of humanoid robots and advance the development of sustainable, high-quality robots. RealMan was founded in 2010 and is known for its line of lightweight, humanoid robotic arms, which are used in a variety of industries, including retail and aerospace.
Not to be outdone, British AI and robotics developer Humanoid unveiled in September what it says is the UK’s first humanoid robot for industrial use. Built in just seven months, the HMND 01 Alpha prototype has completed two commercial proofs of concept (POCs) and is on track for commercial deployment within the next 12 months, according to company leaders, who say their target audience is warehouses, logistics centers and retail facilities. The robot is designed to work alongside humans and will be available on a Robotics as a Service (RaaS) basis.
“[In logistics]”The HMND 01 robot can perform repetitive, physically demanding tasks such as picking and sorting goods, feeding machines, rigging equipment, loading and unloading inventory, and supporting packaging and fulfillment. By working alongside people in environments designed for humans, the robot enhances productivity, reduces errors and improves working conditions – all without the costly infrastructure changes typical of traditional automation,” company leaders said in a press release.
HMND 01 Alpha is a wheeled robot, meaning it has a torso, head and arms but moves via a wheeled base. The robot can travel at speeds of up to four and a half miles per hour and carry payloads weighing up to about 33 pounds. Humanoid said its Beta wheeled robot is scheduled to launch in the third quarter of 2026.
US-based robotics giant Boston Dynamics has also taken recent steps on the humanoid robot development front. Last spring, the company announced a partnership with South Korean electronic components company LG Innotek that will help the Atlas humanoid robot see better. The two companies will integrate LG Innotek’s latest vision sensing components into the robot, allowing it to detect and perceive its surroundings, including in low visibility conditions and dark environments, the companies said.
