The container shipping industry is heading to a long period of excessive ability, with analysts warning that the supply will continue to exceed the demand until at least 2028.
Also read: An unexpected early peak in the sizes of importing containers in the United States
According to the latest purpose Fleet statisticsIncreasing the orders of the new bowl and a sharp decrease in the activity of getting rid of the gap in the demand. The company stated that 2.3 million inous units with a new energy were requested in the first half of 2025, a little decrease from the record 3.8 million units of harmony in the second half of 2024.
The increasing trend in investing the regional ship and the branch in reshaping the request book. While the orders of the large ship – those that are 14,000 equivalent containers and above – were the active ship orders, and they rose sharply. In the first half of 2025 alone, 74 regional ships (up to 4000 TEU) were requested, where the entire year was matched for a period of 2024.
Although the old age fleets – 32 % of smaller ships are over 20 years old, a number is expected to rise to nearly 50 % by 2030 – the disposal activity has stopped. Only 10 ships, totaling 5,454 government units, were canceled in H1 2025, a sharp decrease from 48,600 government containers during the same period last year, according to Alphaliner.
Analysts attribute the slowdown in coordination to the shipping markets and the strong charter, which is strengthened by Cape of Jude Hope. Ship owners also warn against getting rid of the load, after they have faced multiple disturbances in recent years – from the epidemic to red marine attacks – which have revealed the value of maintaining excess power.
Braimar is estimated at 9.6 million equivalent containers, and about 30.5 % of the active fleet starting from July 1. With 3.3 million governmental units for delivery in 2028 alone and the average annual fleet growth expectations by 7.3 %, excessive ability will continue. Pramar analyst, Jonathan Roche, is the average excessive reach of 27 % until 2028, with 18 % expectations this year and 19 % in 2026.
Looking at the future, Braemar expects container movements to the bottom in 2028, just as a wave of new ships will hit the water and the Red Sea. Roche warned that continuous uncertainty will remain a major variable: “The unexpected developments will affect the global economy and have an impact on the wealth of regular navigation lines.”
