Net U.S. trailer orders rose 77% in October from the previous month, but that steep growth still left them 5% below year-ago levels and less than half the 10-year October average, according to a report from transportation industry analysis firm FTR.
The sharp month-over-month rebound indicates renewed fleet engagement and a lower number of cancellations, but the industry overall continues to suffer from weak freight demand, weak profitability, higher input costs and continued uncertainty over trade policy and macroeconomic conditions.
By the numbers, trailer orders for October came in at 15,916 units, compared to the 10-year October average of 37,116 units. The percentage of cancellations fell to just over 5%, indicating some stability. However, many fleets remain cautious and are postponing 2026 commitments until market conditions and pricing visibility improve. The modest year-on-year (Y/Y) decline underscores that demand behavior remains primarily driven by replacement with limited evidence of fleets adding growth capacity.
For 2025 to date, net trailer orders total 135,525 units, up 18% year over year. This increase primarily reflects delayed demand after the November 2024 election, pushing activity into the first quarter of 2025 which would normally have occurred in late 2024. Despite that weak start to the demand cycle in 2025, the early reading of the 2026 demand season was much softer. Cumulative orders for September and October combined fell 15% year over year to 24,917 units, as multiple market headwinds weigh on fleet sentiment.
“The U.S. trailer market continues to face significant pressures from volatile trade policy, rising material costs, and poor fleet morale. Although the Supreme Court ruling could eliminate country-specific tariffs depending on the outcome, the major tariff cost to the trailer industry comes from the 50% Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper that will not be affected,” Dan Muir, senior commercial vehicle analyst at FTR, said in a press release.
“OEMs and suppliers are adapting to higher costs and weak demand through selective price increases, tighter cost controls, and shifts in sourcing. Fleets are extending equipment life cycles, prioritizing maintenance, and limiting new capital commitments as higher costs and policy uncertainty continue to impact near-term trailer demand,” Moyer said.
