According to data from FreightWaves SONAR, U.S.-bound container bookings, measured by the inbound ocean equivalent container volume index, have been noticeably weaker this fall, averaging about 11% below 2024 levels since September.
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However, the index is still more than 30% higher than in 2019, a year that also saw concerns about escalating trade tensions between the US and China. In May 2019, tariffs were raised from 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, with another round imposed in August, although some were later rolled back. These measures led to a modest increase in orders but did not spark the panic buying seen in recent years.
The COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 caused the largest increase in container imports in history. From mid-2020 through the first half of 2022, shippers shifted inventory management from “just in time” to “just in case.” As consumption of goods slows, many companies have excess inventory.
Companies then cut orders below restocking levels for about a year before imports resumed at a strong pace in late 2023. The next major disruption occurred in October 2023 with a Hamas attack on Israel, which eventually forced ships to divert from the Suez Canal. The diversion has constrained offshore capacity and pushed trans-Pacific spot rates for 40-foot containers above $7,000 in the summer of 2024, the highest levels since 2022. The disruptions have pushed some shippers back toward a “just in case” strategy, but not to pandemic-era extremes.
As concerns about conflict in the Middle East eased in late 2024, tariffs became the main driver of import volume fluctuations in 2025. Erratic implementation and pauses disrupted the seasonality of imports, contributing to an unusual early peak in orders in June and July and a mid-year rise in spot prices.
As a result of this early demand, demand for container imports has fallen to levels consistent with a slight reduction in inventory rather than restocking. The latest Logistics Managers’ Index reading supports this idea, which stood at 49.5 in October, indicating a slight contraction.
Source: Market intelligence platform IndexBox
