The impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs continues to impact the logistics and transportation sectors, with major ports seeing a sharp decline in imports after setting records earlier this year. According to CNBC, for the first time in 2025, October flatbed and refrigerated tonnage rates were lower month-over-month and year-over-year, based on the DAT Truckload Volume Index.
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“Freight volumes in the third quarter and October reflect what we are seeing in the broader commodity economy, as shippers rely on inventory built up earlier in the year to reduce their exposure to tariffs and weak consumer demand,” said Ken Adamo, head of DAT Analytics. “As a result, the traditional peak holiday shipping season appears to be almost non-existent this year,” Adamo said.
Transport truck loads decreased by 3% compared to September, and 11% year-on-year. Refrigerated truck loads decreased by 2% on a monthly basis, and 7% on a yearly basis. Flatbed truck loads decreased 4% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year. The low level of dry trucks and temperature-controlled loads now moving through the supply chain are goods moving from distribution centers to retailers.
Reasons for the trade decline range from weak housing and manufacturing to energy costs, shipping companies pulling imports earlier in the year and building inventories to limit the effects of tariffs. The latest U.S. Census Bureau data, released Wednesday after a delay of more than a month due to the government shutdown, showed a significant drop in imports in August after additional tariffs were imposed, $18.4 billion below the level of July imports. The decline in imports contributed to the country’s trade deficit falling by more than 23%, according to the census.
“You’re looking at a 16 percent drop in Chinese imports coming into the United States,” said Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach. “The decline is across the board,” Cordero said. The Port of Los Angeles also recorded a decline in container volumes in October.
Sector-specific impacts and future outlook on electronics, furniture and toys have been identified in this drop in shipping, while US grain exports have also been hit by trade policy, with China increasing its soybean purchases from Brazil during the trade war. As part of easing trade tensions, China recently committed to purchasing more US soybeans.
The decline in containers comes after a period of commercial front-loading during which retailers and manufacturers brought in freight early as they tried to navigate multiple tariff deadlines and rate changes, resulting in big jumps in port traffic. Global container numbers headed to the West Coast rose 10% year over year, according to Vizion. Containers from China to the US West Coast also rose 4.6% year-on-year, with the trade route being the most popular for Chinese goods coming to the US because it has the shortest travel time. East Coast ports, including Houston, saw a modest 2 percent year-over-year increase in container volumes. But Chinese containers decreased by 12 percent.
“The good news is that we are still in a critical situation,” Cordero said. While he said a decline is expected in the fourth quarter, what comes after that is pivotal. “It remains to be seen the resilience of the American consumer and their spending activity, and the next two months will really reveal the contraction of this growth,” he said.
“We now expect a roughly 16.6% year-over-year decline for US imports in December, after a 12% decline in the third quarter,” said Ben Tracy, vice president of strategic business development at real-time container tracking platform Vizion. “There’s no rebound in sight,” Tracy said.
Structural shift in demand for goods
Retailers and manufacturers have paused strong shipping orders due to concerns about consumer declines due to inflation in food and consumer products. The picture from retail earnings this week was mixed, with downbeat reports from Home Depot and Target but strong results from Walmart, which said more consumers are focusing on value, and more of its sales are coming from higher-income shoppers.
“For the first time since March 2023, we are seeing monthly import volumes continue to fall below 2 million TEU – and this is not just a seasonal decline or temporary correction,” said Vizion CEO Kyle Henderson. “The data show that this is a structural goods recession driven by a convergence of tariff uncertainty, frozen housing markets, and a fundamental shift in consumer spending away from physical goods,” he said.
“When furniture imports collapse 33 percent, and toy imports — which have historically risen 40-50 percent before the holidays — are barely up 17 percent, that tells you retailers are betting on the weakest consumer season in years,” he said.
Vizion data shows container usage has dropped from 100 percent to 91 percent. “Coupled with spot rates falling to their lowest levels in two years, we are seeing a decade of excess capacity. This is not a reduction in volume — it is a major reset of the fundamentals of freight demand,” Henderson said. “The shipping market is already feeling the pain,” he added.
Containers scheduled to arrive at US ports in December 2025 are 2.19 million twenty-foot equivalent units versus 2.62 million TEUs last December, according to Vizion, with a volume loss of more than 430,000 TEUs causing a knock-on effect throughout the supply chain.
Work and global implications
In addition to railways, trucks and warehouses, which generate revenue from the movement and storage of goods, port employment is also affected. Reduced freight means less need for longshoremen daily to move containers.
“Labour is absolutely concerned,” said Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach. “It goes back to reduced jobs, job anxiety. … When you reduce volume, you’re going to have an impact on jobs in the supply chain, certainly on the docks here at the Port of Long Beach,” he said. The International Longshoremen’s Association, the port workers responsible for freight movement, receives an annual container bonus for the amount of freight transported.
In addition to China’s tariffs, tariffs on India have led to the collapse of the shipping market serving this trade, according to Vizion. The Global Trade Research Initiative reported a massive 37.5% decline in the total value of Indian exports to the United States between May and September 2025. India’s exports are subject to a 50% tariff.
Source: Market intelligence platform IndexBox
