Global trade growth is starting to lose steam after a strong import increase fueled the first half of 2025, according to the World Trade Organization’s latest measure of goods trade. The report notes that while trade is still expanding, the pace is trending downward as the year enters its final months.
Read also: To: AI trade boom lifts global shipping in 2025, but tariffs threaten to stall momentum in 2026
The measure’s composite index fell to 101.8 in September from 102.2 in June. Although the reading remains above the baseline level of 100 – indicating continued above-trend activity – the decline confirms that the exceptional momentum seen earlier in the year is fading.
“Growth in goods trade appears to have slowed in the second half of 2025 after an increase in the first half driven by front-loading of imports ahead of expected tariff increases and increased demand for AI-related products,” the WTO said.
Transport indicators reflect this cooling phase. The air freight and container freight indices declined over the past three months, with air freight falling to 102.7 and container freight falling to 101.7. These movements indicate a decline in demand for global freight transportation. Agricultural raw materials remained the weakest sector, having been in contraction territory at 98.0 since January. Meanwhile, automotive products and electronic components settled at 103.0 and 102.0, respectively.
Despite the moderation, demand signals remain relatively positive. The new export orders index rose to 102.3 after recent fluctuations, indicating that global export activity may maintain forward momentum.
Growth in the first half of 2025 exceeded expectations, with merchandise trade volume rising by 4.9% year-on-year. However, the WTO revised its full-year forecast down to 2.4%, citing the impact from higher tariffs and continued policy uncertainty in the second half of the year.
The organization notes that stronger-than-expected demand for AI-related products continues to surprise to the upside, reversing a trend that boosted trade earlier in the year. The next full WTO forecast is due in April 2026.
The Commodity Trade Barometer provides real-time insight into global merchandise trade and typically indicates conditions ahead in two to three months. Readings above 100 indicate above-trend performance, while values below 100 indicate a potential decline in business activity.